A CAGE to Contain the Unemployment Monster

Reading the headlines one can hardly avoid the alarming unemployment figures being published in various newspapers and magazines. A recent article on Spiegel Online entitled Europe's Hollow Efforts to Save a Lost Generation  gives latest figures and suggests a lost generation in making. It is scary to read about people not getting opportunities to develop a future for them and for the society to a larger extent. Unemployment problem needs both short-term and long-term remedies for its eradication. Generally short-term views are championed by politicians so here I discuss a long-term view to identify a Companies, Anonymous-individuals, Governments and Educational-institutions (CAGE) based ecosystem that should act in tandem to minimize the menace of unemployment. 

 

Companies

There are two contradicting stories brewing in parallel, on one side are highly skilled workers protesting against lack of opportunities and on the other companies complaining about inadequate labor force in the marketplace to fulfill the business needs. Lots of studies have indicated that positions remain vacant in companies in search for the right candidate and this problem can be more severe in countries where strict labor laws make it impossible for employee to be moved once hired. Companies should have a direct interest in lowering unemployment problem as it has an influence on social stability which any business desires for future prospects. Most of the companies do run management trainee positions for a limited number of people to be trained for specialized business needs. This seems to be an effective solution to take more people on board and bridge the general knowledge gap complained by the companies. Most of the companies also have Corporate Social Responsibly (CSR) departments assigned the task of contributing back to the societies in which the companies operate. CSR department should also have a mandate to contribute in training future employees of the company maybe in collaboration with the educational establishments. A situation where engineers from GE, Google, BMW interact with students can have a game changing effect on this entire knowledge gap which lot of companies seem to complain about. In the corporate world most of the jobs are filled through networking so by the same logic if company employees were to interact much more with the external world (i.e. prospective employees) the unemployment problem can be tackled in a productive manner.

Anonymous-individuals

Every individual irrespective of nationality, social status and personal conditions has an important role of being her own Chief Life Officer (CLO). CLOs share the same level of individual responsibility as a CEO of company with the difference being the missing million dollar paycheck. As a honest CEO shall not participate in any blame-game CLOs should make it a matter of principle of not to even think about it. This resolve is tough considering the situation around a CLO is mostly not his/her control. Wise men say World is Not Fair but I add to it “it never was and will never be”.  It is a nice temptation for us to complain about existing bad economic conditions and greedy bankers. However we have to keep in mind that we have had a fair share of luck as we are fortunate to be living in an era without wars or rampant epidemics (just an example). For a moment, if we look back, all CLOs of world-war era didn’t want war but it was decided by factors out of their control. Comparing the situation, we are definitely well-off with our protest and anger being aired on television and reported all around the world. Protests are an indispensable form or any democratic system so I definitely have nothing against them.  However, CLOs should remind themselves that as collective responsibility is no responsibility the probability of a mass anger and demonstration doing good to an individual is low. Our motto should be, My Destiny is My Action.

Governments 

Irrespective of different fallacies in a democratic system, government has to bear the burden and the responsibly of unemployment. Irrespective of the same democratic electoral system, role of the government in solving unemployment problem is seen differently in different countries. In Europe, youth unemployment is making news and leading to protests on almost a daily basis but a similar situation is an accepted reality in countries like India. I strongly feel a government cannot be in the business of generating employment for a very long time. Role of the government is to facilitate conditions generating employment but not generate employment itself. The effectiveness of those generated conditions would again depend upo+n various factors mentioned in this post. Already there are some effective policies in place in various countries like, tax breaks for companies hiring young inexperienced workers (France), grants for forming new companies (Germany), tax breaks for individuals enhancing personal professional skills, supporting efficient education system, ensuring companies to play by the rules etc.  Referring to recent Apple tax evasion fiasco, governments should make favorable rules for companies to invest and hire more people rather than parking earned profits in overseas territories to avoid taxation. Governments also need to acknowledge that coming up with any taxation on companies to suck their profits would not work in the long term because practically unlimited resources in the private sector would find loopholes sooner or later. Also any realistic government policy can have only a long term impact and this has to be understood. I shall be very skeptical of any political leader claiming to solve the unemployment problem after election results which his predecessor couldn’t. The dip in popularity ratings of the French president François Hollande for not being able to solve the unemployment problem shouldn’t surprise anybody following the basic macroeconomic indicators. 

Educational-institutions

Education system around the world needs to be tuned to the modern needs and challenges. Attitude towards Education and Training could have a major role in transforming right skills to desired skills. Though the spirit and risk taking attitude of entrepreneurship cannot be taught in class rooms but the steps to form a company (for example) should be inculcated into the curriculum as early as possible. Most of the traditional schooling and university systems have KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) which are suited to times where good grades and degree were a guarantee to jobs in big corporations. As we realize in recent times that have changed as good grades plus a long list of “nice to haves” is the new demand. CLOs need to be engaged at an early age and projects generally limited to doing scientific models, data analysis should also be extended to developing a business plan, understanding legal structures, founding a small entity and raising capital for small joint ventures. As of now these subjects are left to MBA curriculum assuming most Engineers, Biologists, and Social Scientists etc. have nothing to do with it. Except very few talented section of the society who resort to obtaining dual degrees or learning out-of-interest most of the labor market is just too specialized to think of something else in case they fail to find a job in the trade they were trained for. The repercussion is seen in huge salaries an MBA graduate expects to command just by learning some basics of running business and solving case studies with the comfort of hind-sight and no impact of failure. The worst outcome of an imbalanced education and salary structures is the trend where our best and brightest are preparing for business schools rather than innovating to drive growth and employment. We as a society for too long can’t support a system where our future Newton, Galileos have a MBA from Harvard and they aspire to manipulate Excel sheets in a Goldman Sachs office. The “sophisticated” products from the recent financial crisis like the mortgage bagged securities, naked credit default swaps are simply an end-product of brilliant minds producing toxic weapons of mass destruction. Empty mind is devil’s workshop. Further, the imbalance created by educational upbringing producing customers buying dangerous products is just the icing on the cake. In short, minimum business and financial literacy for the entire population is a must.

In general a complete CAGE ecosystem needs a revamp to solve the problem in hand. This blog post has discussed some ideas which might only show some improvement in the long term but the short term problem is the real concern. May be the American way of keep pumping money to bring down the employment rate and not hoping to pay the debt works but I am doubtful. For individuals, CLOs blaming greedy bankers, politicians for their plight need to turn some pages in history to find that throughout the human existence there was always a class of people privileged or selfish enough to not to be bothered about others. I am not a pessimist but I don’t see this societal characteristic disappearing completely.  Broad ideas here suggest a new Modes Operandi is need of the hour but I know its “Easier Written than Done”.

Europe Expects Germany to Provide Easy Answers to Difficult Questions

The Euro crisis has brought trouble for many counties including Germany. It has brought the country in a situation it never intended to be in i.e. being considered the sole leader of the 27 nation block. 20^th century plagued Europe with devastating wars and conflicts and this forced France and Germany to join hands to promote European integration and as a part of the whole scheme the Euro was born. Media dutifully serving its role hailed the collaboration as Franco-German excel responsible for driving Europe to prosperity. Germany was comfortable in the collaboration but recently things have started to change. France has somehow lagged behind and Germany has been bestowed with titles like “European Powerhouse”, “Engine of Growth”, “Champion of High End Manufacturing” and many more. These titles were coined after the 2008 crisis and to the discomfort of the Germans have brought unnecessary attention. Further, Germany finds itself in a position where delivering easy answers to difficult questions is expected and demanded.

  
The formation of the Euro zone was pitched as necessary for small (in size) European nations to counter big economic zones like the US and China. Euro was supposed to reduce trade barriers and facilitate a big market place envisioned to serve everybody’s good. Invariably it has tuned out that everybody’s good showed various colours. With the hindsight benefit it becomes clear that some of the countries and their institutions enjoyed the cheap capital sloshing around in the market for purposes not necessarily leading to productivity and economic gains. However, in this entire media frenzy about the crisis, certain things are seldom reported. 

•   The crisis didn’t originate in Europe it was a result of influential Americans institutions collapsing due to unsustainable business practices and debt levels. This didn’t change American approach as they have chosen to continue living on cheap capital and have left on destiny to choose a generation to pay all the incurred debt. The “15-TRillion-Debt-Can” has been kicked down a bumpy road to stumble in an unknown pit, and is being prayed not to be discovered.  

•  The problem is not with Euro as a currency but with certain countries (although list expanding) using   Euro as their currency.

•   The last and the most important is the fact that people/media/institutions looking for easy answers have linked the Euro (and Germany to an extent) to the plight of countries in recent news. I am not sure if the situation would have been any different had some of these countries kept their own currencies with unsustainable policies. Consider this for an example; in pre-crisis era Cypriot banks were giving up to 5% interest rates to their depositors whereas their counterparts in France and Germany hardly offer anything to their customers. Further, the same banks bought Greek government bonds in lure of attractive yields relying on a full European bailout which never happened. Any institution based in any country and operating with a currency of choice could have placed this bet and easily ended up with a catastrophic result. 

Point is if the policy makers are not committed to implementing efficient policies or long term well-being then irrespective of the currency used trouble is inevitable.  I think Euro for some has definitely brought the consequences of inefficient policies forward by at least a decade but has very limited role in originating the consequences at the first place. Recent rhetoric to blame Euro and Germany is not completely valid. In the full blown crisis after 2008 nobody can predict what the situation had been in case the common currency in Europe was not in place. The credit/asset bubble didn’t originate because of the Euro but because of wider global imbalances in the world economy. Further, it has to be kept in mind that nations without being part of a “weak monitory union” have got into troubles earlier as well (e.g. Argentina around year 2000). I don’t intend to defend the EU monitory union here but want to discuss what is going on and why Germany has to answer some tricky questions.

Europe and America have responded to the economic crisis in very different fashions. America fearing a liquidity crunch of the late 1920’s leading to great depression has continued to pump unlimited supply of dollars in form of quantitative easing sponsored by the Federal Reserve. Europe has taken the other way and has gone to adopt fiscal consolidation and strict austerity measures. This European action has been driven by the European Central Bank (ECB) based in Frankfurt. Germany owns a hefty 27% stake in the ECB so understandably has a significant clout on its policies. Germany fears hyperinflation of the 1940’s which led to the rise of Hitler and so has a very conservative approach towards money printing. Here exactly the trouble starts and with following questions arising from various quarters:  

•   Austerity being pushed by Germany is not helping to fuel any kind of growth. All the forced salary cuts, tax increases have not lead to any productivity gains simply because Euro has been able to maintain a strong value because of the unlimited amount of money being printed in US and the UK (Pound has lost its value significantly). To make the matters worse, recently Japan joined the printing party as well. Germany’s policy towards austerity shall not yield any comfort in Europe with money being printed 24/7 in other influential economies. Therefore, Germany’s solution (in the short term) is not expected to produce any benefits for nations being pushed to brink of a social collapse producing conditions to incubate right wing politicians (what Germans dread of). Recent inconclusive elections in Italy are a close example.  In a nut shell, it’s a tough road for Germany ahead. 

•   Markets inherently never differentiated significantly between a German Euro and a Greek Euro according to the message from the politicians. This became the reason for easy capital at low interest rates made available to all member states. As of today, Germany supported by other countries definitely don’t see this anymore but the vision for a big Euro block is intact with new countries being considered to be added into the Euro block. Is this policy consistent? Can this be explained?

•  Countries are increasingly becoming opinionated that Germany has reaped great economic benefits from the Euro and is using its position to force its diktat. Economists have published research that in case Germany moves out of the Euro its own currency would appreciate significantly and Germany would lose its competitive edge. Therefore, with this reason, Germany has self-interest to contribute to massive bailouts and accept a transfer of payments to different Euro zone member states. Interesting to note is that Switzerland, Canada and Australia have seen their currencies appreciate significantly in recent years but have not necessarily lost their edge (although there are repercussions) in things they produce and services they deliver. How Germany explains this to rest of the world is an interesting one actually? 

•  Germany itself has a disciplined government budget (this year deficit expected to be around 1%) but this tough requirement has become a sore medicine for the Euro states in trouble. Austerity medicine is tough for so-called peripheral nations used to big governments, good social infrastructure and national programs generating employment. It is to be noted that Germany had budget deficits in early 2000s but the money wasn’t necessarily used to finance expansive motorways and bridges, modern metro stations, unused airports and incomplete houses. How does Germany explain this is a headache actually?

Questions, opinions and frustration are rightfully brewing in different quarters. It is not difficult to find Angela Merkel with the Hitler moustache these days in newspapers and sign boards. Opinions should always be expressed but will somebody acknowledge that people like easy answers to difficult questions?

National MODI-lemma is Here to Stay

Irrespective of the political spectrum (right, left or centre) one associates to, nobody can deny the attention Narendra Damodardas Modi commands in Indian politics. With three consecutive victories in Gujarat, Modi has become a self-proclaimed seal of authority and public trust which very few Indian political figures dare to claim.  This self-proclamation has not been affected by a controversial past which gives tremors of unjust and fear in a sizable chunk of our population.  The 2002 riots in Gujarat under this same administration openly applauded for the Gujarat growth story is still an unhealed wound for many. Indian judicial system would take its time and course to decide Modi’s role in the massacre but till then I feel this man has done enough to keep us all interested. I write this blog to reflect on the reasons behind the recent charismatic rise of Modi and the dilemma (and so MODI-lemma) it brings for India in 2014 national polls. I shall start with the situations facilitating Modi’s discussion on a national scale where I think Dr. Singh has played a big “silent” hand.

A Silent Decade with a Silent Prime Minister: A Night Watchman as a Friend Described

The silent image that Dr. Manmohan Singh, our current prime minister, carries has left a lot of us wondering and to an extent frustrated. Political elites like Sushma Swaraj have been on record saying “Pehle to hamare Pradhan Mantri bolte nahi hain or jub bolte hain to aap unki sunte nahi hain” (First our prime minister hardly speaks and when he speaks nobody listens to him) this in one sentence summed up the country’s impression about our leadership.  Not limited to politicians, the same sentiment is shared in jokes on Facebook and other social networking platforms. Compared to this, someone like Modi just by his oratory skills gives an impression of being in control all the time (I think his stand of not being in control in 2002 is very hard to believe).  Modi’s recent popularity has had a very big contribution from the ruling Congress party which has kept a dummy head of state leading to disappointed voters. Dr. Manmohan Singh might be a man with unmatched intellect but his inability to win elections suggests that politics and leadership is not only about being learned and wise. I feel, a decade without a charismatic leader makes an outspoken confident Modi an easily sellable proposition for many political pundits.

Dwindling Economy: India Shining Dependent Upon Cheap Capital in the West

It is now clear that a lot of growth observed in Indian economy till the 2008 meltdown was fuelled by cheap western capital. Except for few intellectuals nobody could predict the global asset bubble brewing and for India it wasn’t different either.  In fact, it was even worse; we were blind-folded with a double allusion. One there was this cheap capital which very few could smell and secondly we had Dr.  Singh at the helm, the man credited to lead the famous reforms of early 90’s.  However as the world economy slowly returns to “normalcy” the news is not encouraging, we had one of the worst performing currencies in year 2012 and a GDP growth rate is hovering around the 5% mark. The 5% growth rate is a dream in the west but for a country like India it’s not enough to satisfy the aspirations of the ever-growing urban young population. On the contrary, the growth stories in states of Gujarat and Bihar are making headlines across the nation.  The rise of politicians like Nitish Kumar from Bihar and Narendra Modi from Gujarat definitely indicates that Indian politics and democracy is slowly maturing to overcome the old cast, creed and religion bias for economic performance and law and order situation to play an increased role. Betrayed by inaction or incapability of Dr. Singh, I feel people hope Modi to deliver for the entire country what he has done successfully for Gujarat. Whether this can happen or not is still to be seen but again I feel Dr. Singh’s inaction is making Modi’s case stronger day by day.

Corruption: 2G, CWG, Coal, Oil, Defence – Government Just Did It

The sitting prime minister has an unquestionable honesty but in the times of social media he has been quickly crowned as the head of one of the most scandalous governments. The corruption portfolio is astonishing and the 2G and CWG scams literally put India on the world corruption map. Can we consider a man honest if he himself is clean but leads a team accused for corruption cases? Modi on the other hand not only has a very clean record in corruption also heads a team with equal dignity. Personally, I feel corruption is deep rooted in our society and I find it very difficult to eliminate it just with the change in governance. However, our nation of 1.2 Billion is definitely capable to provide an honest cabinet on which Dr. Singh has failed miserably. I think this is again big time helping Modi to gain attention as he seems to have delivered this at least at a smaller scale.

Readers up to this point may assume that I am for granted taking Modi to be the prime-ministerial candidate and winner for the right wing Bhartiya Janta Party.  This is not the case and now I discuss the MODI-lemma which we shall face in case Modi actually contests for the prime ministership.

An Expensive Experiment: Can We Even Afford It?

Living outside my own country has definitely given me a glimpse of how quickly a “minority” can be targeted or blamed for individual and political gains. I am fortunate to live in a country with a reliable law and order situation but in India history shows us how easily the situation can escalate to go out of administrations control. If India decides on Modi to be the next prime minister we risk giving a free hand to right wing fundamentalists. Modi has once already failed to control the spill-over effect in 2002 would he be in a position to stop the same at a national scale is anybody’s guess.  A deteriorated law and order situation specifically hostile to a chunk of the population is the last thing India needs at this point in time. India is a unique county with so many religions and cultures living together and as citizens we should do everything to protect that identity and heritage.

Judicial Process: The Law Shall Take its Course

Indian judicial system is well recognized for its pace and it is no different in Modi’s case. I am very much sure that before 2014 polls judiciary would not have given its final verdict and I think that is the most sensitive point in the story. There is almost no guarantee that judicial process will remain independent and bold enough to take action against a sitting prime minister (in case Modi contests and wins). The dismal record we have in sending our Netas behind the bars should make us think   twice before electing or even discussing a man with a tainted past for one of the most coveted positions in the country.

The Indian Irony: Is He the Only One?

Yes Modi has been discussed widely and very enthusiastically in various circles and this being one of them. However, it is still not clear that whether he shall be acceptable on a national scale. For example his acceptance in Uttar Pradesh (having most seats in the national assembly) would hold the key. Can we take the riots in 2002 as one off and forget that heinous crime against our country men? We need to remind ourselves that the “secular” congress instigated the Sikh riots in 1984 but since then has “comfortably” ruled the country.  I feel, in case Modi contests and wins (without his name being cleared) then a political party would have again used the “short” public memory to its advantage.  Internationally speaking, Modi means controversy, recent discussions about him in European circles, US visa issues, and invitation followed by decline from Wharton does suggest that this man has an identity confusing enough for many. How shall India as a nation respond for such controversies surrounding a sitting prime minister? I don’t think anybody has an answer right now.

Modi is not the only chief minister to win three consecutive elections. Shiela Dikshit has done that for congress in Delhi. However, in the current political sphere Modi exhibits almost an unmatched charisma and a pro-growth agenda which indeed is the need of the hour. I definitely feel that MODI-lemma would have been less acute in case Dr. Singh had lived up to his expectations and not delivered a puppet show.  I think, it’s an Indian irony that Modi has a past very difficult to forget and forgive.

  

Curious Relation of O2 Germany and Sparhandy.de

I recently decided to get a smart phone to join the band wagon of mobile tweets, Facebook comments, cheap VOIP calls and non-stop whatsApp messaging. Our generation has witnessed mobile technology taking the world by a storm. We continuously see amazing apps, screen resolution, processing speed (quad-core in a mobile is the talk of the day) and powerful cameras being integrated into beautifully crafted gadgets. Not limited to phone hardware and software features, advancements have also been made in mobile data communication networks which have moved into their 4^th generation offering speeds to manage expected data traffic in near future. Along with all the brilliant advancements being driven by engineers the MBA’s are not left out either and have come up with new marketing and sales strategies to bundle smart phones and data/voice plans. I think most of you would agree that a data plan from a reliable operator is almost mandatory for modern phones to exhibit their smartness else it would not take them long (going out of WIFI reach) to become dumb. So I decided to get a smart phone with a data plan and this blog is to share my learning in doing so.

Being a “well- informed” customer and knowing that the franchisee showrooms generally offer a higher price I looked-up O2 Germany’s website (a part of the Spanish Telefonica group of companies). The mobile phone collection was impressive ranging from Apple iPhone to Samsung Galaxy, Sony Experia and Nokia Lumia. Smartness was further augmented with well-crafted data (flat rates with good combinations of 2G and 3G network usage) and voice plans (like flat rate calling in various networks, SMS options etc.). To facilitate the customer and reduce her financial burden O2 also suggested taking the phone in easy 0% interest installments i.e. you can either pay the entire phone cost upfront or split it into 24 easy installments. In all, the arrangement is nicely tailored for a customer looking to go mobile, pay the phone cost along with a separate voice and data plan for a period of 24 months. After the first 24 month period, only the voice and data plan charges continue to exist as you would have already paid of the bought phone.  The contract has the standard conditions in Germany, to be terminated after 24 months if O2 is informed 3 months prior to the contract finishing date.  Else there is a default extension of 1 year (with same price and services). Things look pretty transparent in the story with an offer clearly differentiating the phone and the service price. However three things didn’t look very right to my eyes:

• I always believed that I can find the same phone cheaper than the price listed on the o2 website (say through a vendor on Amazon).
• Why shall the down payment price be equal to the price a customer decides to pay in 24 monthly installments? With common sense anybody shall select the 24 month installment plan which is nothing but a small “gift” from the company in question here (use now pay later).
• I have been an O2 customer for last 6 years and I clearly remember the pre-smart-phone era where the phone price was set according to different data plans. Earlier, if I selected a monthly plan costing 40 Euros a month then I was charged a lower price to own the phone in comparison to somebody opting a 10 Euro per month plan for 24 months. This is not the case anymore; price of the phone has been made separate from the data plan. Basically a new sales model!

Small doubts instigated me to do some more research to look into the phone subscription models existing for a potential customer like me. I checked several websites offering different subscription models not very different from O2 (though packaged differently). However, I found exactly what I was looking for when I landed on Sparhandy.de. This is a website which offers different smartphones bundled with plans from different network providers like O2, Telecom, Vodafone and E-plus etc. The concept is simple, a customer is asked to select a phone and a data-plan from a provider. However following things were as I expected them to be in the first place: 

• Phones were being offered at different prices from various network providers (like O2, Telekom etc.)
• Most importantly, say with a provider like O2, the price of the phone was dependent upon a selected data and voice plan. In short, higher the monthly plan cheaper was the phone to buy.

Simple mathematics convinced me that O2’s new sales model is charging a higher price from customers buying phones directly from its website. To clarify, I have shown here my analysis about 4 phones from different companies (Motorola, Apple, Samsung and Sony) with identical mobile contracts offered on both the websites. I suggest you to look at the graphic attached and see the amount one can save in a typical 24 month contract period. The saving potential is huge on the latest phones like Sony Experia T where savings can be as high as 28% or 300€.  

All figures indicated in Euros and rounded to nearest integer

Price for different phones keeps changing on both o2online.de and sparhandy.de.

Prices shown were taken on 5^th Feb 2013

Idea is to highlight the difference in the handset price being offered for the same contract on both these websites and that becomes the main cost saver for a customer

The price difference comes because Sparhandy offers the customer a handset price dependent upon the selected data and voice plan. This is a consistent observation for phones and tablets of all the brands. I highly recommend the readers to check the website for them to see the difference (even for different network providers).

By being a bit inquisitive I made an O2 phone contract through Sparhandy and saved a decent sum of money. Following things might also interest certain readers:

• Sparhandy also offers contract extension possibilities which are again much cheaper than the original provider’s website (for O2, Telekom and some other providers).
• Some of the smart phones like Samsung DUOS S7562 (dual-sim, running Android 4.0, GPS and 5MP camera) are available for 1€ phone cost with a 10 Euro per month data plan on Sparhandy. Such phones are not at all being offered on the O2 website.

Be Smart and Go Mobile and yes this post is not sponsored by Sparhandy!

The Pursuit of Growth: An Eastern Perspective

Readers may remember my earlier post The Pursuit of Growth: A Western Perspective discussing ramifications of globalization on the developed world. Globalization although contentious in certain aspects has definitely been instrumental in lifting millions out of poverty. There is also little doubt that some of the developing economies have reaped greater absolute rewards from the process. However, westerners with right attitude need not dread them and realise that the starting point for emerging economies was way behind their own individual mark. Also, even the most optimistic projections do not expect emerging economies to surpass per capita level of wealth enjoyed in Europe and America.   

Recognizing the growth potential in the emerging world, Jim O’Neil an economist at Goldmansachs coined the term BRIC (Brazil Russia India and China) in 2001. The acronym gained political mileage resulting into BRIC summits (starting from 2009) for heads of states to meet and discuss future strategies. In this article I want to present my analysis about the recent growth in the BRIC nations. The phrase “Eastern Perspective” in the title indicates that the discussion is formalized on my experience in India and readings about China. The new wealth and growth in certain countries have raised questions and issues warranting scrutiny at various levels.

China has surprised a lot of pundits and commentators through phenomenal growth in previous decades. India after the reforms in early 90’s have also reported healthy growth rates and it is specifically believed that with proper policies there is a lot more to come. As mentioned earlier and cited frequently, growth has lifted millions out of poverty but fact remains that “millions” form still a small fraction of the population living in these countries. It is clear that as a country starts to develop, the fortunate already having access to education, health care and other amenities become early movers to reap advantages. The rise of an affluent upper middle class and recent rise of billionaires in all the BRIC nations re-certifies the trend. Historically in the west also people at the tip of the iceberg benefited the most with industrialization in the 19^th Century. People like John Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, and Robert Bosch did leave the ordinary masses way behind in accumulating fortunes. However, western countries with manageable population sizes, impartial policies and philanthropist visionaries were successful in establishing civilized prosperous societies. For the countries now seeing “healthy growth rates” it is important for governments to include masses in the growth process. Failing to do so would lead to an alienated section of the society with a lot of despair. BRIC nations feel proud about the number of Billionaires they possess in the annual Forbes list. However, whether the modern day “BRIC-llionaires” match the greatness of a Carnegie or a Gates is to be seen and would test the character of these societies.

BRIC nations have numerous challenges like citizens expecting quality of life, fair justice and access to good health care and employment opportunities. Following fundamental issues remain at the core of most the challenges:

·         Nations already have huge populations living in poverty

·     Weak political and social institutions (recent problems in Nigeria after the discovery of oil shows the importance of public institutions)

·    Most countries are seeing only a particular sector driving growth. The advantages from exploiting Russia’s natural resources and Indian services industry may not necessarily spill over to all other sectors of the economy immediately. However, I hope this to change in future

·        Increasing mistrust towards governments plagued with corruption scandals

Irrespective of the well-known problems listed above, most probably these countries would continue to gain importance in the world economy. The main test is about the growth path, whether the countries chose to grow in a controlled responsible manner (sharing the pie responsibly) or continue with the existing trend leading to social divide and unrest. With the latter option the world is bound to see a transition in which the largest economies in the world (likes of China and India) may not be anymore the richest, prosperous and best places to live. This would also change the world dynamics as until now it is preconceived that the biggest economies are also the richest nations in the world. Recent turmoil in the Arab world which was described as an uprising against authoritarian rulers, I feel had the underlying social divide as a major driving force. Of course the governance methodology had its major shortcomings but as being seen in Pakistan, an irresponsible/incompetent democratically elected government might face similar consequences. Not limited to the developing world, the “occupy-wall-street” movement in the west which might not have met all its desired objectives but did remind democratically elected governments about a problem brewing in the contemporary world. Great scholars of our time including Nobel laureates Amartya Sen and Joseph Stiglitz have been critical of a mad “Pursuit of Growth” limited only to numerically measuring the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This practice has unfortunately been readily adopted in the developing world and an example is seen in the recent pressure Indian government came under after “growth rates” have dropped to the 5% mark. Agreeing to the grates I feel lot of countries need to adopt an inclusive growth map else a huge social divide would make our habitat too dangerous to live.

The rise of countries like China and Russia also pose an interesting aspect for the world and democracy to an extent. Normally in media and discussion forums the world is mostly described through a western perspective. Basically, the concept of only democratic free market economies being successful is widely propagated. This notion is being challenged by the rise of China and to a lesser extent by the hiccups observed in the Indian growth story. It is worth to be noted that already the second biggest economy in the world is not a democracy with hardly any chances of a transition in near future. The argument of a rising middle class derailing a communist system is still to show effects in China following state driven capitalism. In very near future world’s largest economy would not be a democracy, which may cause some rule books to be rewritten.

It shall be interesting in future to note societies’ attitude towards governance. Is a fragile coalition government elected democratically better than an authoritarian state? Democracies modeled on western institutions have a lot of expectations primarily on the basis of its past successes. A democratically elected government in a society with huge extremes, I feel may not be representative and can easily attract comparisons with a principally inferior communist system. Therefore, I see huge societal extremes as the biggest threat in the times to come.