National MODI-lemma is Here to Stay

Irrespective of the political spectrum (right, left or centre) one associates to, nobody can deny the attention Narendra Damodardas Modi commands in Indian politics. With three consecutive victories in Gujarat, Modi has become a self-proclaimed seal of authority and public trust which very few Indian political figures dare to claim.  This self-proclamation has not been affected by a controversial past which gives tremors of unjust and fear in a sizable chunk of our population.  The 2002 riots in Gujarat under this same administration openly applauded for the Gujarat growth story is still an unhealed wound for many. Indian judicial system would take its time and course to decide Modi’s role in the massacre but till then I feel this man has done enough to keep us all interested. I write this blog to reflect on the reasons behind the recent charismatic rise of Modi and the dilemma (and so MODI-lemma) it brings for India in 2014 national polls. I shall start with the situations facilitating Modi’s discussion on a national scale where I think Dr. Singh has played a big “silent” hand.

A Silent Decade with a Silent Prime Minister: A Night Watchman as a Friend Described

The silent image that Dr. Manmohan Singh, our current prime minister, carries has left a lot of us wondering and to an extent frustrated. Political elites like Sushma Swaraj have been on record saying “Pehle to hamare Pradhan Mantri bolte nahi hain or jub bolte hain to aap unki sunte nahi hain” (First our prime minister hardly speaks and when he speaks nobody listens to him) this in one sentence summed up the country’s impression about our leadership.  Not limited to politicians, the same sentiment is shared in jokes on Facebook and other social networking platforms. Compared to this, someone like Modi just by his oratory skills gives an impression of being in control all the time (I think his stand of not being in control in 2002 is very hard to believe).  Modi’s recent popularity has had a very big contribution from the ruling Congress party which has kept a dummy head of state leading to disappointed voters. Dr. Manmohan Singh might be a man with unmatched intellect but his inability to win elections suggests that politics and leadership is not only about being learned and wise. I feel, a decade without a charismatic leader makes an outspoken confident Modi an easily sellable proposition for many political pundits.

Dwindling Economy: India Shining Dependent Upon Cheap Capital in the West

It is now clear that a lot of growth observed in Indian economy till the 2008 meltdown was fuelled by cheap western capital. Except for few intellectuals nobody could predict the global asset bubble brewing and for India it wasn’t different either.  In fact, it was even worse; we were blind-folded with a double allusion. One there was this cheap capital which very few could smell and secondly we had Dr.  Singh at the helm, the man credited to lead the famous reforms of early 90’s.  However as the world economy slowly returns to “normalcy” the news is not encouraging, we had one of the worst performing currencies in year 2012 and a GDP growth rate is hovering around the 5% mark. The 5% growth rate is a dream in the west but for a country like India it’s not enough to satisfy the aspirations of the ever-growing urban young population. On the contrary, the growth stories in states of Gujarat and Bihar are making headlines across the nation.  The rise of politicians like Nitish Kumar from Bihar and Narendra Modi from Gujarat definitely indicates that Indian politics and democracy is slowly maturing to overcome the old cast, creed and religion bias for economic performance and law and order situation to play an increased role. Betrayed by inaction or incapability of Dr. Singh, I feel people hope Modi to deliver for the entire country what he has done successfully for Gujarat. Whether this can happen or not is still to be seen but again I feel Dr. Singh’s inaction is making Modi’s case stronger day by day.

Corruption: 2G, CWG, Coal, Oil, Defence – Government Just Did It

The sitting prime minister has an unquestionable honesty but in the times of social media he has been quickly crowned as the head of one of the most scandalous governments. The corruption portfolio is astonishing and the 2G and CWG scams literally put India on the world corruption map. Can we consider a man honest if he himself is clean but leads a team accused for corruption cases? Modi on the other hand not only has a very clean record in corruption also heads a team with equal dignity. Personally, I feel corruption is deep rooted in our society and I find it very difficult to eliminate it just with the change in governance. However, our nation of 1.2 Billion is definitely capable to provide an honest cabinet on which Dr. Singh has failed miserably. I think this is again big time helping Modi to gain attention as he seems to have delivered this at least at a smaller scale.

Readers up to this point may assume that I am for granted taking Modi to be the prime-ministerial candidate and winner for the right wing Bhartiya Janta Party.  This is not the case and now I discuss the MODI-lemma which we shall face in case Modi actually contests for the prime ministership.

An Expensive Experiment: Can We Even Afford It?

Living outside my own country has definitely given me a glimpse of how quickly a “minority” can be targeted or blamed for individual and political gains. I am fortunate to live in a country with a reliable law and order situation but in India history shows us how easily the situation can escalate to go out of administrations control. If India decides on Modi to be the next prime minister we risk giving a free hand to right wing fundamentalists. Modi has once already failed to control the spill-over effect in 2002 would he be in a position to stop the same at a national scale is anybody’s guess.  A deteriorated law and order situation specifically hostile to a chunk of the population is the last thing India needs at this point in time. India is a unique county with so many religions and cultures living together and as citizens we should do everything to protect that identity and heritage.

Judicial Process: The Law Shall Take its Course

Indian judicial system is well recognized for its pace and it is no different in Modi’s case. I am very much sure that before 2014 polls judiciary would not have given its final verdict and I think that is the most sensitive point in the story. There is almost no guarantee that judicial process will remain independent and bold enough to take action against a sitting prime minister (in case Modi contests and wins). The dismal record we have in sending our Netas behind the bars should make us think   twice before electing or even discussing a man with a tainted past for one of the most coveted positions in the country.

The Indian Irony: Is He the Only One?

Yes Modi has been discussed widely and very enthusiastically in various circles and this being one of them. However, it is still not clear that whether he shall be acceptable on a national scale. For example his acceptance in Uttar Pradesh (having most seats in the national assembly) would hold the key. Can we take the riots in 2002 as one off and forget that heinous crime against our country men? We need to remind ourselves that the “secular” congress instigated the Sikh riots in 1984 but since then has “comfortably” ruled the country.  I feel, in case Modi contests and wins (without his name being cleared) then a political party would have again used the “short” public memory to its advantage.  Internationally speaking, Modi means controversy, recent discussions about him in European circles, US visa issues, and invitation followed by decline from Wharton does suggest that this man has an identity confusing enough for many. How shall India as a nation respond for such controversies surrounding a sitting prime minister? I don’t think anybody has an answer right now.

Modi is not the only chief minister to win three consecutive elections. Shiela Dikshit has done that for congress in Delhi. However, in the current political sphere Modi exhibits almost an unmatched charisma and a pro-growth agenda which indeed is the need of the hour. I definitely feel that MODI-lemma would have been less acute in case Dr. Singh had lived up to his expectations and not delivered a puppet show.  I think, it’s an Indian irony that Modi has a past very difficult to forget and forgive.